The UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Technology and Innovation Report 2025 has found that the AI market is projected to reach $4.8 trillion (roughly the size of Germany’s economy) but its benefits remain highly concentrated.
The report says countries should act now - by investing in digital infrastructure, building capabilities, and strengthening AI governance - to harness the AI potential for sustainable development.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan underlined the importance of ensuring people are at the centre of AI development, calling for stronger international cooperation to “shift the focus from technology to people, enabling countries to co-create a global artificial intelligence framework”.
AI is expected to reach $4.8 trillion in market value by 2033, becoming a prominent force in digital transformation. However, access to AI infrastructure and expertise remains concentrated in a few economies. Just 100 firms, mainly in the US and China, account for 40% of global corporate R&D spending. Leading tech giants, such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft, each have a market value of around $3 trillion, rivalling the gross domestic product of the whole African continent. Market dominance, at both national and corporate levels, may widen technological divides, leaving many developing nations at risk of missing out on its benefits.
AI could impact 40% of jobs worldwide, offering productivity gains but also raising concerns about automation and job displacement. The benefits of AI-driven automation often favour capital over labour, which could widen inequality and reduce the competitive advantage of low-cost labour in developing economies. However, AI is not just about replacing jobs - it can also create new industries and empower workers. Investing in reskilling, upskilling, and workforce adaptation is essential to ensure AI enhances employment opportunities rather than eliminating them.
all graphs: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
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